Black Friday 2025: What’s In Store For Ecommerce And 3PL Companies?

Cast your mind back to 2013. Asda launched the UK’s first in-person Black Friday event: the shutters opened, shoppers sprinted to grab cut-price electricals and fights even broke out.

The annual shopping event started in the US the day after Thanksgiving – but it’s taken off in the UK and many other countries too, with retailers using it as an opportunity to kick off the Christmas season. And, of course, for most people it’s an exciting and enjoyable shopping experience, especially as we can now grab bargains online from the comfort of our sofas. 

Online sales accounted for 30.3% of total retail sales in November last year – up from 27.7% the previous month and undoubtedly driven by Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending. Viral trends like Labubu dolls were one of the drivers for online purchases, especially on TikTok Shop, where cosmetics, tech and fashion products dominated 2024 sales.

For small and niche ecommerce brands, Black Friday and Cyber Monday are an opportunity to go head-to-head with major retailers, securing valuable sales and brand loyalty in the final quarter of the year.

Yet consumer expectations are notoriously high – in fact, as many as 85% are disappointed if deliveries are delayed or shipping costs surge. 

A single bad experience during Black Friday can lead to negative reviews online – and nobody’s immune. Recently, influencer Molly-Mae had to apologise after a customer’s TikTok video went viral because her ecommerce brand, Maebe, had accidentally delivered another customer’s return parcel. 

Teams across the supply chain are now under growing pressure to deliver goods quickly to meet these expectations and stay in the market. 

But just how much are order volumes expected to rise this year?

With Black Friday falling on 28 November, and fast approaching, we crunched the numbers to find out.

Key takeaways:

• Online order volumes expected to grow by 18.6% in 2025 
• Black Friday shoppers set to spend £10.3bn
• Industry experts share their insights and tips for a successful Black Friday

We analysed Black Friday sales and order data from over 550 ecommerce and third-party logistics (3PL) companies, from 2022-24 to calculate order volume growth and expected spend in 2025.

Black Friday order volumes set to increase by almost a fifth in 2025

According to these estimates, order volumes could increase by as much as 18.6% in 2025 – or nearly a fifth – compared to the same period last year. 

This year’s prediction is more modest compared to last year, when order volumes grew by almost 37%% year-on-year, possibly because the sector had bounced back after the worst of the cost of living crisis in 2023. 

The number of online orders also reached 2.5m during Black Friday in 2024 – a 675,804 increase compared to 2023. 

Wider research reveals online spending increased by 12% last Black Friday – and in-store visits dropped by 0.5%. Consumers are turning to digital shopping experiences during Black Friday to get the best deals, with mobile phones the primary shopping channel.

Black Friday spending to hit more than £10bn

Shoppers are set to splurge £10.3bn during Black Friday week, according to our research.

Average spending last year, based on various reports, hit £8.69bn during Black Friday, with clothing, cosmetics, fitness and nutrition, and activewear popular product categories.

A PwC report suggests 68% of Black Friday purchases were made online last year – if consumer behaviour follows a similar trend in 2025, that could mean over £7bn of Black Friday spending will be online. 

With both sales and orders up, ecommerce and 3PL companies need to prioritise good customer experiences this Black Friday, including fast delivery, accurate picking and packing, and order retrieval.

Cyber Monday is the busiest day for fulfilment teams

Last year, Cyber Monday was the busiest day for ecommerce sellers and 3PLs who dispatched nearly 450,000 customer orders. Based on a 1-3 day dispatch time, most orders were placed on Black Friday and over the weekend. Online sellers may be inundated with orders, especially since weekend dispatches were low, or they may be holding out until Cyber Monday to send orders in bulk.

The Monday before Black Friday (25 November) also proved busy, with more than 365,000 orders dispatched. The data reveals Black Friday spending starts the week before the actual event, as online retailers release deals early to outpace competitors.

What does this mean for the ecommerce and fulfilment industries?

Warehousing teams across the UK may process billions of customer orders this Black Friday but without the right processes and tools, meeting demand is a challenge. Even a single mistake – such as packing the incorrect product – can damage the customer’s experience and drive up costly returns. 

Managing seasonal spikes – not just on Black Friday but at Christmas and other peak periods too – is critical. We spoke to industry experts to find out what challenges and opportunities Black Friday brings, and how they can prepare. 

Rebecca Kane, Managing Director of CK Fulfilment and homeware company Silver Mushroom, said:

“Black Friday has become the biggest test of our operations, with client order volumes often rising by several hundred percent in just a few days. We’ve invested in systems, staffing and processes to handle these peaks seamlessly, so our clients can focus on sales while we ensure fulfilment runs smoothly. It’s intense but hugely rewarding, as it really shows the value of a reliable logistics partner at the busiest time of year.

“We’ve evolved by focusing on smarter forecasting, closer client communication, and stronger carrier partnerships. Our warehouse management system helps us allocate stock, track orders in real time, and set clear delivery cut-offs, which keeps expectations realistic and service consistent. Combined with flexible staffing and proactive communication, this allows us to scale quickly and minimise risk during peak demand.

“The key is collaboration and transparency. We work closely with carriers and suppliers to share forecasts early, agree realistic cut-offs, and build contingency into peak planning. Real-time system integrations mean everyone has visibility of stock and inventory, which helps manage expectations and avoids surprises. This all results in a smoother experience for the client and the end customer.”

Beth Chapman, Founder and MD of Hounslow-based logistics company Starlinks Global, said: 

“If peak season is a test of Black Friday readiness, 2025 has already been the ultimate rehearsal. It has been a volatile year for cross-border trade, shaped by turbulent change in one of the world’s largest e-commerce markets, the United States. When the de minimis threshold was withdrawn, many carriers suspended services altogether, but we kept delivering throughout, building compliant pathways that allowed retailers to keep trading and maintain shopper confidence.

“That experience reinforced that resilience is not just about capacity, it is about adaptability. Retailers need carrier partners who can move quickly and precisely when conditions shift, whether through new tariffs, strikes, extreme weather, or the surge of peak volumes.

“And the lesson is clear. The knock-on effect of disruption is rarely limited to delivery delays. It filters through every part of the chain, putting pressure on customer service teams, driving up operational costs, and eroding margins through refunds and lost sales. Black Friday will always test capacity, but this year it will also test agility. The carriers that have already proven they can weather disruption while maintaining strong service levels will be the ones retailers can rely on when it matters most.”

Clare Bottle, CEO of the UK Warehousing Association, said:

“Black Friday has become one of the busiest and most challenging peaks in the logistics calendar. For UKWA members, it’s not just about a single day, it has evolved into a sustained surge in demand that can stretch across several weeks. This creates pressure on warehouse space, labour, systems, and transport capacity, as businesses must cope with huge spikes in volumes that are significantly above the norm. At the same time, consumer expectations around fast and low-cost delivery have remained high, which intensifies the challenge for our sector.

Warehousing and logistics firms have adapted to this in a number of ways – including using data analytics to forecast demand more accurately; investing in automation and technology to increase throughput and resilience; and improving communications to ensure shoppers receive realistic delivery times and updates. 

Some are also staggering promotions across November to spread the load rather than concentrating it into one day.

Every year, our sector demonstrates its resilience and critical role in the modern economy and 2025 will be no different.  Above all, look out for each other – Black Friday can be tough!”

Sites like Shopify and Etsy have given small and micro ecommerce sellers a platform to compete with larger retailers but Black Friday turns up the heat as brands battle for customers’ attention. Even if you offer better deals, a negative experience during Black Friday can mean customers never return.

From initial orders to delivery, it’s essential you have the right processes and tools in place. Mintsoft’s Ecommerce Solutions, for example, are designed to improve efficiency for fulfilment teams from initial order to delivery and returns, to deliver great customer experiences.

• Automate tasks: Reduce the risk of errors and save time by automating processes like order fulfilment and returns – for example, fast-batch scheduling speeds up the picking process by automatically batching orders based on templates and time intervals
• Integration: Connect your software with online marketplaces like TikTok, eBay, Shopify, WooCommerce and more to manage sales channels from a central system
• Real-time tracking: Keep an accurate record of the number of items in stock to prevent stockouts and track where products are located as they move through the fulfilment stages. A mobile scanning app enables teams to update inventory and pick orders on the go, so your data is always accurate
• Keep customers informed: Send automatic order updates and tracking information, so customers are kept in the loop with their Black Friday orders. This works by syncing shipping data to your sales channel, so your team can send communications to customers such as dispatch emails and delivery texts 

Industry recommendation: Rebecca Kane, CK Fulfilment and Silver Mushroom

“It’s simple: you need to plan. Black Friday puts huge pressure on every part of the supply chain, and the businesses that succeed are the ones who forecast early, share information with partners, and prepare their operations in advance. Good planning and communication takes the stress out of peak season and ensures customers get the service they expect.”

As brands are releasing Black Friday deals earlier and earlier, your warehouse needs to be prepared to manage a sudden influx of orders. You may also be managing multiple clients and warehouses, so a smart warehouse platform that enables you to manage accounts and invoices is essential.

• 3PL client experience: Set up customised client portals to enable ecommerce sellers visibility into stock, order status, invoices and integration with ecommerce stores
• Central system: View and manage all of your inventory, across different locations and warehouses, from a single system
• Courier integration: Choose from more than 89 couriers to work with and connect them to your software, so that shipping costs are automatically calculated and sent to your clients
• Automate processes: Set up custom order rules to automate tasks like creating documents, assigning couriers or splitting orders 

Industry recommendation: Clare Bottle, CEO UKWA

• Share data and forecasts early and transparently with logistics partners.
• Plan contingency capacity in warehousing and transport well ahead of time.
• Work closely with carriers to balance volumes and prevent bottlenecks.
• Build strong, long-term partnerships rather than transactional relationships, so that trust and flexibility are there.

Methodology

Mintsoft analysed sales and order data from over 550 ecommerce and 3PL companies that use its platform to calculate Black Friday spending and growth. Taking an estimated average rise across the last few years, the figures were contrasted with previous industry reports from the likes of Barclaycard, PWC and Nationwide to reach the £10 billion total.